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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 27, 2017



The British pound has been competing with the surge of the dollar and a basket of currencies is already behind of the currency. The performance of the British currency has been better than other currencies as reflected in the past few weeks as it was supported by the Bank of England and the U.K. government which keeps it from collapsing.  


The central bank supports the currency which allows the probability of a rate hike for the year. It seems that the bank would not disturb the economy with the ongoing process of Brexit that flows at a faster pace than in their last meeting. Although, they noted that they would interfere when necessary. It has improved the confidence of the U.K. economy which also pushes the currency at a slower but steady in the past few weeks.


The U.K. government aptly proceeds with the Brexit process through their parliament which helped the situation and supported the pound to rise stronger over time. Although the U.K. Prime Minister May lengthened the timeline for Brexit in the new few years. In the meantime, her approach implies that the both the nation and the investors trust the economy.


Today, there is no major economic news from the U.K. anticipated but the durable goods data will be released from the U.S. The greenback is presumed to hold the current rates because of the expected announcement in the afternoon from Trump to implement a new tax system. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair will be put under pressure.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2017



The EUR/USD bounced back after the report for wholesale price inflation came in better than expected. As the yields provided some support which made the single European currency to gain more attraction in relation to the US dollar, with the continuous boiling of the Catalonian issues.
The greenback was able to sustain its gains due to a stronger than expected results of same-store sales, as it jumped almost to 5%.


The euro-dollar pair rebounded yesterday, followed by testing of the support region at 1.1661 area near the August lows. The pair’s resistance touched the 1.1822 level which is close to the 10-day moving average. Whence, the 10-day moving average moved beneath the 50-day moving average which indicates a downtrend in the medium-term in place.


Moreover, the momentum preserved its negative position while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram is printing in the red accompanied by a descending trajectory. This further shows that exchange rate became lower.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2017



The markets are generally dull yesterday in spite the Cable pair moved higher during the daytime trading session. Both Canada and the United States is a holiday and liquidity is expected to be low during the entire day, while Japan is a holiday as well. However, the bulls active in the pound market took advantage of the low liquidity in pushing the prices upwards.


Meanwhile, the British pound continues to struggle in the sluggish data causing the Bank of England to keep on hold in the near term. During the BoE’s meeting in the previous month, there are possibilities that the central bank would raise its rates in December this year, but the impact of political risks and weaker data prompt them to be on hold.


The Brexit process is excluded from the issues of political uncertainties rather the extension of the UK Prime Minister Theresa May from her position.


Currently, PM May is urging to resign even by her own party and it remains unclear how she will handle this issue as well as to maintain the focus on processing the Brexit referendum.


Moreover, there is a rising issue about the no-deal in the euro area which could negatively affect the Britain’s economy.


If these factors were combined, it could probably keep the GBP in the pressured area. For today, the UK manufacturing production data is scheduled to be released from the United States. When the liquidity became stable again, it is expected that the greenback will continue to decline but will support the GBP/USD pair to ascend.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2017



The GBP/USD pair keep on trading in an up and down direction which seems directionless, by the weakness of the U.S dollar helps the Cable pair to boost amid this period.


The struggle of the British currency continues due to the risks linked with the Brexit process, however, the dollar weakening appeared to be massive which affected others in moving up over the greenback. Until now, the Brexit process is ongoing but it remains to be seen any major development.


The delay in the talks continues while other discussion also does not provide any progress so far. This trigger doubts if Brexit talks could possibly break down and further led to question if the United Kingdom will depart from the European Union even without any accomplished deal. This could be the possible thing to happen at this particular moment, which further resulted in lot of uncertainty.


Moreover, the position of PM Theresa May seems to be threatened since last week because most of her party are against her leadership technique. Albeit, she was able to surpass such mess, she remains involved in a complicated scenario. These combined events pushed the sterling pound under pressure but the weakening of the dollar made it acceptable.


Ultimately, the retail sales and CPI data from the United States are scheduled today while the United Kingdom has no major data for this day. These set of data should be monitored carefully by market participants because inflation is considered a major parameter by the Federal Reserve, particularly, in making the decision about the rate hike in December. In case the figures showed strong data, the GBPUSD is expected to wane.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2017



The euro bucks pair failed to gain strength during the trading session on Monday, followed by expectations to drive higher amid sluggish US data issued on Friday. While the retail sales showed robust data as well, however, the CPI resulted to a lower than anticipated figures. This caused the EURUSD to test the 1.1870 range high but the pair continuously moved lower since that period.


The EUR/USD weakened until the end of the trading course last Friday and the activity happened yesterday was a mere continuation of that previous trend. On one side, the U.S. dollar was able to acquire further strength since there are no any hints about the next missile launch from North Korea sooner or later, but the markets are still expecting for such motion. Moreover, this supported the greens to stir gradually and firmly across the board in the morning. The momentum ascends during the American hours with a high possibility that John Taylor would replace Janet Yellen for the position as Fed Chair. Taylor is known to be hawkish and very supportive of Fed rate increase. He is also favored by President Trump as the hawkishness helped the USD to perk up versus its counterpart currencies. Also, this has pushed the pair downwards below the 1.1780 mark as of this writing.


Ultimately, the Germany ZEW economic sentiment is scheduled to release today and no other major news both from the European Union and the United States.


The strength of the greenbacks is predicted to resumed this day as the pair eventually turns towards the range lows at 1.1700 mark.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 30, 2017



The single European currency resumed moving lower as witnessed on Friday amid the sluggishness prompted by the ECB, as the central bank suspended the QE tapering. The effect of their decision would likely continue to be felt by the euro in the near term.


A sudden recovery was seen after the US dollar lost its strength on Friday, however, the impact appeared to be very insignificant and the euro is expected to keep on moving lower within this week.


The EUR was hardly hit by the ECB’s decision to extend the tapering until September 2018, which was opposite to market’s expectations that the program will end without delay. The scheduled data from the European region will remain robust. Moreover, the investors who are large buyers of euro were quite surprised in the past few months from the time when the ECB touched on the QE tapering in the previous meetings.


Whereas, ECB President Mario Draghi soften the talks about the tapering plan in the previous months in order to limit the strength of the European currency. But the market is not in the mood to pay attention and keep on buying more during that period. On Friday, they were awakened from the truth when the bank clearly stated its mood not to stop QE, which weakened the EUR.
A slight rebound is expected today but the overall trend appeared to turn downwards.


Ultimately, there is no major economic release from the US or Eurozone and as the month ends, there is a possibility of a profit taking, adjustments on positions and month end currency flow. Also, consolidation is anticipated, coupled with a small relief rally which could probably be sold and temporary.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 2, 2017



The British pound against the U.S. dollar dropped for a bit during the start of the Wednesday. Soon after, the price bounced up towards the 1.33 level. This pulled back from the said level and tried to reach the level of 1.3250, which has been the focus of sterling traders. Overall, the market should proceed to move higher as it was able to achieve reach a higher level prior to that. Choppiness will also persist in the market and the market will most likely attempt to reach the level higher than 1.35. The 1.3650 level will still be the main resistance level for long-term positions. However, if this area is surpassed, the market could further go up for a longer term.


For now, it is best to take advantage of buying in the lows. If the traders successfully break the level of 1.3250, an option is to wait as this could still go down towards the level of 1.32 and if it breaks down from there, it could further go down to 1.31. It would not be long before value seeking traders would come in cases of pullbacks since there is a strong bullish pressure.


There is a possibility for the uptrend to stop when it breaks lower than the level of 1.30. Hence, this makes small trades to be the ideal position in this trade. Positions should be put on hold until another successful breakout occurs above the level of 1.3650. From here on, this serves as an investment and would be determined through the patience of traders in the current situation.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2017



The GBP/USD softened during the trading course on Tuesday and it closed the day with choppiness with regards the British pound. The sterling lost its strength in the morning and successfully regained its entire losses until the closing of the day. As of this writing, the GBP is trading comfortably on top of the 1.3150 level. The rebound muddled the scenario relative to the direction of the British currency.


On one hand, the American dollar appears to remain unchanged throughout the course yesterday. US President Donald Trump is currently on a trip to different Asian countries, the twitter seems to be a  good venue since Trump is outside US and sarcastic comments are not present also during this period. Therefore, it bolstered the greenbacks to maintains its position. The dollar received further support from the finishing touches on tax reform plan as the program is going through various stages. The pound was mainly bullish followed by a decline from the last fall that occurred during the BOE rate hike, however, it gave a gloomy economic perspective.


Despite the 2 cents decrease of the sterling on that day, it was able to recover within the day and worked out to acquire additional cent from the price on the same day. This indicates bullish signals towards the GBP while the market is worried about eliminating chances for more rate increase and starts to recede slowly.


Ultimately, both the United Kingdom and the United States will not release any major economic data throughout the day. Bullishness is expected to prevail amid the day. An increase from the Cable pair has the tendency to weaken and remained steady but the price could lead the price higher in the short term.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2017



The single European currency paired with the U.S. dollar drove higher during Thursday session since the trade surplus in Germany has expanded, while the U.S. initial claims rebounded. Moreover, the German growth is predicted to overcome its previous outlook as the inflation is projected to remain muted capping the upside in the pair.


The EURUSD had moved upwards and pushed back on top of the 1.1625 level near around the 10-day moving average, which serves as a support in the short-term. Further support hits the 1.1550 weekly lows. A close over the 1.17 region could possibly negate the formation and triggered consolidation. The negative momentum was seen declining as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator is printing in the red, linked with an ascending trajectory that gives signs of consolidation.


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