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NZ Business Confidence Index Plunged After General Election

After the general election in New Zealand, the business confidence in the country has declined to its two-year low which is caused by the fears of manufacturers for a downturn.

Before the voting on September 23, the confidence index fell to zero against 18.3 last month as mentioned by ANZ Bank New Zealand on Tuesday.

More than three months passed after the survey of manufacturing companies issued a pessimistic forecast for business conditions within next year, higher by 2 percent in the earlier poll.

Moreover, the sector has the tendency to cut down hiring while respondents are expecting for a lower salary.
Qatar’s Imports Surged in August Despite of Sanctions

Imports of Qatar rose in value as it bounced off abruptly during the month of August compared to the earlier month as stated in the government data on Wednesday. This could mean that the economic impact of sanctions enforced by neighboring Arab nations is ebbing.

Previously imports dropped over a third in value after several countries including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt which severed their diplomatic ties with Doha on June 5. However, this affected the shipping routes to Qatar as it closed the border of its country with Saudi Arabia where food and construction materials are being imported.

However, figures showed a sudden increase of 39.1 percent to 8.68 billion riyals or $2.38 billion last month as reported by the planning and statistics ministry. Although in contrast to the statistics from a year earlier, the imports were 7.8 percent lower exhibiting a big recovery compared to the levels for the month of June and July when it plunged greater than 35 percent last year.
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Politically Impelled Depreciation of New Zealand Dollar

A decline in the local dollar is anticipated as warned by the leader of the small nationalist party which will determine the next government of the country following the uncertain outcome of the general election. The New Zealand dollar dropped to its lowest value since the latter part of May on Monday after the final counting of votes at the weekend which exhibits the opposition of the Labour-Green bloc leading paired against the ruling National party. Although, the National party occupies a greater number of seats.

After the final counting of numbers, there is a market speculation that the New Zealand first leader , WInston Peters, has to receive support from both parties to reach sufficient supporters to oversee the proportional representation system of the country and would be easier to work together along with the center-left Labour-Green bloc, inducing investors to sell their assets in New Zealand.

Peters negotiated with both Labour and National parties on Tuesday. He has previously served the ruling party headed by both political bodies. Once the election has ended, he was anticipated to publicize with the party would he be associated with on October 12. Yet,  reports from media say that he was not ready to announce his preferred coalition by Thursday and cannot decide if there will be an announcement on Friday.

The New Zealand currency plunged by 3.7 percent since the election on September 23rd. It reached a four-month low of $0.7052 on Monday then rose the following day traded at $0.7063.

Consequently, exporters will find this news a good event being an export-reliant nation as said by Winston Peters after its meeting with Labour when he was being interrogated about the depreciation of the currency.

The nationalist party supports the arbitration of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in the foreign exchange market and the kiwi is ranked as 11th eleventh in the currency market in 2016. On the other hand, the Labour party supports some revisions in the mandate of the central bank related with inflation. The Labour party has more commonality with the protocols of NZ First and putting more pressure in the market regarding the changes in policies since the National has more control over 10 years. At the same time, both parties also favor the adjustments in immigration, foreign proprietorship, and renegotiation of some trade deals. Peters has not given any decisions but he mentioned that control in foreign ownership will be his focus on most of the talks.
World Bank Cuts Growth Projections in India

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India may decline to 7.0 percent for this year versus 8.6 percent in 2015 due to concerns in demonetization and the Goods and Services Tax (GST). As per the forecast from the World Bank, controlled private investment brought by internal bottlenecks could impose downside pressure towards India’s potential growth.

On Wednesday, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had revised lower the country's growth outlook at 6.7 percent in the current, this shows 0.5 percentage point lower than the two previous forecast and weaker than the 6.8 percent by China.

As indicated in the biannual economic update from South Asia Economic Focus, the economic development of India was greatly affected by the issues regarding the withdrawn banknotes and risks involving the GST. Therefore, resulting to an expected slow growth.

The growth could increase by 7.3 percent next year through implementing fair policies in balancing public expenditure with private investment. It is projected that sustained growth could lead to further poverty alleviation and more attention is necessary to help the informal economy gain benefits, according to a report issued prior the annual meeting of the World Bank and the IMF.

Moreover, the reduction on India’s economic growth also weighed down to South Asia, which resulted to a tip over the second rank followed by the East Asia and the Pacific.

On the other hand, both public and private expenditure have faster pace after the approval of the Seventh Central Pay Commission (7th CPC). And also because of the recovery in the rural demand subsequent to the agricultural impetus and normal monsoon. Meanwhile, the aggregate demand decline as public investment begin to weaken.

The bank mentioned that GST is forecasted to stall economic progress earlier next year, however, there is a tendency that momentum may raise. There are indications that shows manufacturing, post-GST and services could possibly decrease sharply.

The economic activity could sustain within a quarter in stabilizing the GDP rate at 7.0 percent in 2018.
Finance Minister Le Maire Confident for Optimistic French Economy

Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire is present in the conference with central bankers and Group of 20 finance ministers led by the International Monetary Fund. He met with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday. During the meeting held in Washington,  Le Maire told officials his confidence towards the expected economic performance of France. Considering the determined behavior of Macron administration in implementing reforms. According to Le Maire, the main purpose of President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership is to give France a new and improved economy. There are different projections about French GDP but currently predicted to increase by 1.7 percent in 2017, which indicates the country’s strongest development after six years.

The French Ministry of the Economy and Finance reported the continuous expansion with the same pace in 2018,  however, the Finance Minister stated that it could possibly jump beyond official outlook.

After Macron’s five months in the position, he successfully put into effect complex labor laws reform which enables companies to have more flexible environment working period and implementation of job cuts. Moreover, the French leader began to discuss with associations and corporate groups the intention to revamp employee training and unemployment-insurance system.

The government also prepared the national budget for 2018 that will reduce taxes and public expenditures, Le Maire said.
ECB Asset Purchases Refused by the Court of Germany

The appeal for an injunction to prevent the Bundesbank in participation to the asset purchase program of the European Central Bank has been turned down by the Constitutional court of Germany, according to the recent statement of the court. The program is worth 2.3 trillion euro or $2.7 trillion.

As observed previously, the German court was reticent when it comes to the asset purchases in the past. The ruling is now left in the hands of the European Court of Justice which has sided with the ECB when bond buying was put into question.
World Economy’s Best Performance in Ten Years Boosted by China

The strong economic development of China boosted the global economy that has been perking up on its most excellent performance in 10 years. The world’s second-largest economy announced on Thursday the expansion of 6.8 percent during the third quarter, after central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan contemplated about the 7 percent pace for the second half over the weekend. Moreover, due to hints about the prospect of a sharp decline in 2018 could fade away, the economists of Goldman Sachs upgraded their projection by 6.5 percent increase next year.
Indications of growth were clearly seen in Asia on Thursday, as the central bank of South Korea further raise its economic growth outlook for the current year, and exports from Japan attained double digits for three months straight in September, while the unemployment rate in Australia reduced surprisingly.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lifted its forecast for the United States, China, Europe, and Japan, stating that the global economy is performing at its fastest pace in a decade.

The Washington-based IMF predicted the world economy will expand by 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018, showing growth of 0.1 percentage point against the earlier estimate, with the Asian region contributed 63.3 percent for the development.

The renewal of China’s import demand became the major support throughout Asia, coupled with the strong recovery in Asian exports to EU and US that made an upswing around the globe, according to chief Asia-Pacific economist Klaus Baader from Société Générale SA.

Also, Zhou mentioned that the impetus for China’s acceleration in the second half is derived from the household consumption which was indicated in the statistics issued yesterday. While the retail sales grew by 10.3 percent last month earlier this year. Aside from consumption, the Chinese data includes government expenditure that provided 64.5 percent growth from Q1 to Q3 of 2017 which shows 2.8 percentage points higher versus the same period in 2016.
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